How to find the best value for money in the forward seats – set up as a blog post with tables, short analysis and concrete building blocks.
Principles: Minutes > everything; penalties raise the floor; play the program in chunks (3-5 rounds); plan wildcard timing.
Methodology and what we look for
- Playing time (xMins): Starters with 70-90 minutes are clearly most valuable in the budget tiers.
- Role/penalties: First choice as 9 and possibly penalty kick = higher, more stable score floor.
- Underlying numbers: xG/xGI and shots in the box over time – not just one good pre-season game.
- Match program: Clusters of good rounds; buy before a green streak, sell before it turns ugly.
- Risk: Injury history, transfer uncertainty, competition for space.
FPL 4.5m Attacking players
It’s rare for 4.5m forwards to play regularly. Use them as a 3rd reserve unless an unexpected opening provides starter minutes.
| Spiller | Club | Price | FPL-take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Junior Kroupi | Bournemouth | £4.5m | Bench only; monitor late transfer/loan |
| Marc Guiu | Sunderland | £4.5m | Bench only; avoid as 2nd reserve |
| Ahmed Abdullahi | Sunderland | £4.5m | Only if he starts early – otherwise bench |
Manager notes
- Prioritize safe 2- or 3-pointers over dream upside – you rarely need them.
- Lock a 4.5 after GW1 lineups first, if possible.
FPL 5.0-5.5m Attacking players
There may be gold hiding here, but these are typically chances rather than locked starters.
| Spiller | Club | Price | FPL-take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Piroe | Leeds | £5.5m | If starting + possibly on penalties → strong value |
| Lukas Nmecha | Leeds | £5.0m | Quality, but injury history – point only |
| Eliezer Mayenda | Sunderland | £5.5m | Can squeeze in; good rotation pick |
| Lyle Foster | Burnley | £5.0m | OK price; evaluate competition on the offensive |
How to use them
- As 1st bench/rotation player in good home games.
- As a bridge to more expensive forwards before your first wildcard.
FPL 6.0-7.0m Attacking players
Here you’ll often find fixed starters in good systems at a reasonable price. This is typically the most rewarding budget shelf.
| Spiller | Club | Price | FPL-take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson | Bournemouth | £7.0m | Stable starter in offensive setup; price can be spot-on |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | Wolves | £6.5m | 18 G/A last season; strong when the program takes off |
| Danny Welbeck | Brighton | £6.5m | Even minutes, lower explosiveness – fine as F2 |
| Thierno Barry | Everton | £6.0m | Can take over the 9 role; exciting differential |
| Igor Thiago | Brentford | £6.0m | Increasing value if competitor is sold; good system |
Manager notes
- Prioritize 90-minute profiles with clear roles.
- Combine a “solid” 6.5-7.0 with a cheaper point for flexibility.
FPL 7.5m+ Attacking players
The value here depends on the captain selection. One semi-premium next to budget forwards gives flex.
| Spiller | Club | Price | FPL-take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spiller | Club | Price | FPL-take |
| Erling Haaland | Man City | £14.0m | Still captain #1 for most people |
| Alexander Isak | Newcastle | £10.5m | High xG, strong alternative in good rounds |
| Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | £9.0m | Stable minute floor + penalties + involvement |
| Dominic Solanke | Tottenham | £7.5m | Can be a scoop if starting and on a lot of playing time |
| Chris Wood | Nottm Forest | £7.5m | Underestimated; monitor minutes |
| Yoane Wissa | Brentford | £7.5m | Good program, but keep an eye on transfer/role |
Manager notes
- Without Haaland, you need a clear captain plan (Isak/Watkins) in the good rounds.
- Solanke/Wissa can provide overpriced value if they are locked in starters.
Building blocks: 3 popular configurations
1) Safe + premium
Haaland+ Watkins + 4.5m
Pros: Captaincy + high minute floor. Cons: Less flex in midfield.
2) No-Haaland start
Watkins + Evanilson + Strand Larsen
Pros: Value and balance. Cons: Requires clear captain’s plan and quick reaction when form dips.
3) Midfield-heavy
Solanke + Welbeck + (Barry/Igor)
Pros: Max budget for midfield premiums. Cons: Requires rotational patience.
Risk and safety assessment (quick overview)
- Tier 1 – Safe: Haaland, Watkins
- Tier 2 – Solid value: Evanilson, Strand Larsen, (possibly Solanke)
- Tier 3 – Punts/differentials: Welbeck, Barry, Igor, Piroe, Mayenda
- Tier 4 – Dead spot: Most £4.5m forwards unless a starter emerges
Checklist before GW1
- Has the player started 2-3 pre-season matches in a row?
- Who takes penalty kicks if the first choice is not on the pitch?
- Is there competition for the 9 spot (rotation/joining)?
- Does the match program match a 3-5 GW cluster where you actually want to play him?
- Do you have an exit plan (price, easy upgrade/downgrade)?
Sell signals (early season)
- Decreasing minutes (jump-in <30 min, or benched two rounds in a row)
- Penalty kick moves to another player
- Tactical role shifts away from the box (false 9, edge)
- Program turns red for 3-4 rounds – and you have a better 1st bench
Overall recommendation
- Avoid £4.5m for anything other than 3rd reserve – unless a real starter emerges.
- £5.0-5.5m holds few lottery tickets – Piroe/Mayenda is most exciting in terms of price vs. potential role. price vs. potential role.
- £6.0-7.0m is the gold zone for value – Evanilson and Strand Larsen look like top choices, Welbeck a stable addition.
- £7.5m+ provides semi-premiums – Watkins stable, Isak premium differential; Solanke/Wissa can hit sweet spot depending on minutes.
